The IMF declares the inflation battle largely won, noting a significant decline in global price increases without triggering a recession. While central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have begun to cut rates, they remain cautious, emphasizing readiness to adjust if inflation trends reverse. The IMF forecasts global inflation will drop to 3.5% by the end of next year, below pre-pandemic averages.
The IMF has downgraded China's growth forecast to 4.8% for this year, citing a worsening property market as a significant risk. The report warns of potential further price corrections and reduced consumer confidence, despite recent government measures aimed at stimulating the economy. China's GDP growth for the third quarter was reported at 4.6%, slightly above expectations, but concerns remain over the sustainability of these support measures and their impact on public finances.
Asia stocks are mostly rising following a Wall Street rally, with investors optimistic about lower interest rates as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its easing cycle. The S&P 500 is up 24% year-to-date, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have seen significant gains. As the U.S. election approaches, Bank of America notes that political outcomes could impact specific market sectors, emphasizing the importance of stock selection over index investing. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have risen amid geopolitical tensions, despite a bearish supply-and-demand outlook. The IMF has lowered its global inflation projection, indicating a shift in focus for policymakers towards economic growth challenges.
The IMF reports that the global fight against inflation is nearly complete, with a projected decline to 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from 5.8% in 2024. However, rising geopolitical risks, market volatility, and weaker long-term growth prospects pose significant challenges, particularly for lower-income countries. The IMF warns that while inflation expectations remain stable, vigilance is essential as financial market turbulence and geopolitical tensions could threaten economic stability.
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